A new United Nations report warns that it could take up to 350 years for Gaza to rebuild if it remains under blockade following Israel’s military actions against Hamas, one of the most devastating campaigns since World War II.
The U.N. Conference on Trade and Development indicated that if hostilities cease today and Gaza returns to the conditions prior to Hamas’ attack on October 7, 2023, it would still take centuries for the economy to recover to its fragile pre-war state. Before the conflict, Gaza was already affected by a blockade imposed by Israel and Egypt since Hamas took power in 2007.
The ongoing war has caused immense destruction, leaving neighborhoods in ruins and critical infrastructure damaged. Significant debris, including bodies and unexploded ordnance, must be cleared before any reconstruction can begin.
The report states that merely returning to the pre-war status quo would not enable Gaza to achieve sustainable recovery. With an average growth rate of 0.4% from 2007 to 2022, it could take 350 years to restore GDP levels from 2022, with per capita GDP expected to decline due to population growth.
Israel defends the blockade as a necessary measure to prevent Hamas from acquiring weapons and holds the militant group responsible for the dire situation in Gaza.
The report’s author, Rami Alazzeh, calculated the recovery timeline based on the severe economic damage sustained in the first seven months of the war. He emphasizes that the recovery process is contingent on the conditions surrounding it.
At the end of January, the World Bank estimated damage in Gaza at $18.5 billion, nearly equal to the combined economic output of the West Bank and Gaza in 2022, prior to the intensification of hostilities.
A U.N. assessment found that about 25% of structures in Gaza have been destroyed or severely damaged, with a significant percentage of housing units affected. The Shelter Cluster, an international coalition, estimates that rebuilding homes alone could take 40 years.
Even under the most optimistic scenarios, the report indicates that recovery could still take decades, projecting a return to 2022 GDP per capita levels by 2050 if substantial investment and unrestricted movement of goods and people occur.
In the wake of the conflict, Hamas militants killed approximately 1,200 people in Israel and took 250 hostages, while Israel’s offensive has resulted in over 42,000 Palestinian deaths, mostly among women and children, and displaced around 90% of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents.
Alazzeh warns that a ceasefire alone will not resolve the devastation, as many Palestinians would wake up to find their homes, schools, and hospitals gone. He cautions that if conditions revert to pre-war status, the future of Gaza remains bleak.